BlockPhi research methodology

What is published here?

• The BlockPhi Global Liquidity Index

  What the index contains, why each channel is in it, how it is transformed, and which transformation failed its stationarity test.

• Global Liquidity and the lead over Bitcoin

  Every published estimate of the lead, reconciled against the measure it was taken on, then how BlockPhi measures the same thing on its own series and the test that rules out the reverse reading.

• Bitcoin fair value

  The model families that produce a Bitcoin fair value, what their fit statistics are worth, and where this model class fails.

• Gold and Bitcoin

  Three credible sources, three different answers, including a change of direction between two pieces by the same author.

What is not published here?

The current level of the series, the fair value it implies, the distribution around that value, and the weights of the components behind it. Publishing the ingredient list does not reproduce the number, and the weights are what would.

Every page carries the date it was published, the date it last changed, and a revision entry giving the reason for each change. Where a figure comes from outside BlockPhi it carries its source, that source’s own date, and the date the source was read.